Australian credit impulse decelerates further in October 2016

The RBA released its credit and lending aggregates last week which gave me a chance to update the growth in new credit indicators. The growth in new credit is one of two important sources of spending that can provide some insight into the broad direction of growth in spending and house prices in the near term. You can read more about the credit impulse here.

In October 2016, growth in new credit for the private sector continued its much sharper deceleration – the overall trend for growth in new private sector credit remains negative:-

Source: RBA, The Macroeconomic Project

Total private sector growth in new credit peaked back in October 2014 with growth in new credit reaching +$50b. Since then, growth in new credit started to decelerate and this has picked up significant pace since Apr 2016. As of Oct 2016, total private sector growth in new credit is firmly negative at -$20b. To generate growth in spending, credit growth (and/or income) needs to be accelerating.

To be perfectly clear, the overall level of outstanding debt is still growing, but new credit is now growing at a decreasing rate. The longer term chart below of total private growth in new credit in Australia provides some context for where we are in the cycle:-


Source: RBA, The Macroeconomic Project

The main driver behind this recent deceleration is new business credit.

The period of expansion for total private sector credit between May 2013 and Oct 2014 was driven mainly by the acceleration in the growth in new credit for business. For a period of time, the size of the growth in new credit for business was even on par with that of mortgages. This was a strong indication that the economy could expect to see greater stability in employment growth and investment spending (at least to help off-set falls in mining investment spending). Despite drifting off again, there was a period of modest acceleration between Jun 2015 and Jun 2016.

Since Jun 2016, the growth in new credit for business has started decelerating at a much faster pace. As of Oct 2016, the growth in new credit for business is also firmly negative at -$13b. The previous cycle low was -$33b in May 2013, and while we are still a way off this, the negative slope of the curve is what is important:-


Source: RBA, The Macroeconomic Project

The size of the business credit impulse is now smaller than that of mortgages and other personal credit.

This deceleration is not consistent with higher growth expectations for the economy, especially against a backdrop of already low income growth. The peak in this most recent cycle of new credit growth for business also highlights how much weaker this ‘expansion’ (2014-2016) has been compared to the period prior to, and immediately after the GFC. For the moment, we are seeing a much weaker labour market and continued lackluster business investment. Without accelerating business credit, we are likely to see this continue.

There was a small, positive shift in the growth in new credit for mortgages in Oct. Although still negative, the growth in new credit for mortgages accelerated slightly from -$8.3b in Sept to -$6.9b in Oct – the first positive move since mid-2015. Looking at the split between the owner occupier and the investor credit impulse is problematic due to data cycling over large series breaks from 2015. For example, the largest adjustment in loan classification from investor to owner occupier mortgages occurred in Oct 2015 when $17b in mortgage loans were reclassified.

The slope of the overall mortgage credit impulse curve has been negative since Jun 2015, with growth in new mortgage credit decelerating from +$30b to now -$6.9b in Oct 2016. This means that new credit is now growing at a more constant pace, suggesting that price growth is also not likely to accelerate.


Source: RBA, The Macroeconomic Project

The question is, how has this manifested in house price growth at a National level?

Using the latest ABS data (to June 2016), growth in residential property prices has slowed in the last year (to June 2016) compared to the year prior (to June 2015). This is very much in line with what the credit impulse would suggest has happened.


Source: ABS

The slow down in price growth is evident in both established houses as well as attached dwellings and, in both cases, growth has slowed quite significantly. Again this is very much in line with the steep, negative slope of the credit impulse during that time.

The same data, over time, also clearly correlates with the slope of the mortgage credit impulse curve.


Source: ABS

The performance of the housing market in Australia has been very uneven and state performance varies widely, but on aggregate, the deceleration in credit growth suggested that overall residential price growth would also slow. Until there is a more sustained acceleration in the credit impulse for mortgages, we can expect house price growth, on aggregate, to remain low/neutral.

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